https://sphere.acg.edu/jspui/handle/123456789/2508 Sun, 15 Feb 2026 11:38:05 GMT 2026-02-15T11:38:05Z https://sphere.acg.edu/jspui/handle/123456789/2512 Title: Assessing the impact of economic and geopolitical uncertainty on inflation: An asymmetric perspective Authors: Tantaros, Marios George Abstract: This dissertation has a two-fold aim. First, to investigate the spillovers of inflation, economic, and geopolitical uncertainty across prominent global economies. Second, to assess the impact of economic and geopolitical uncertainty on inflation in the United States, China, Russia, and India, using monthly data for the period 2000M1-2022M3. To account for nonlinearities, we follow Ando et al. (2022) by applying the quantile connectedness methodology, which allows capturing non gaussian effects. Further, we proceed by performing a quantile regression to examine the effects of economic and geopolitical uncertainty on inflation. We contribute to the existing literature in two ways. First, by applying asymmetric econometric methodologies to examine the spillovers of inflation, economic, and geopolitical uncertainty. Second, by exploring the macroeconomic channels through which the impact of economic and geopolitical uncertainty is transmitted to inflation. Our results have two strong policy implications. First, as the adverse uncertainty shocks dominate the beneficial, to counterbalance the effects of an adverse inflation or uncertainty shock a larger beneficial shock is required. Second, in the case of an adverse shock, either economic or geopolitical, policy makers in Russia and USA should strengthen demand, thus following expansionary fiscal or monetary policy, while policy makers in China and India should take measures to decrease inflationary pressures. Sun, 01 Jan 2023 00:00:00 GMT https://sphere.acg.edu/jspui/handle/123456789/2512 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://sphere.acg.edu/jspui/handle/123456789/2511 Title: How do oil and gas prices affect Greece's domestic inflation? Authors: Katsigiannis, Dimitris Abstract: This dissertation examines the relationship between oil and gas price changes and the Greek domestic inflation along with the existence or absence of any asymmetries of such relationship during periods of increasing and decreasing oil and gas prices. This paper focuses on a 10 year period, from 2012 until 2022, covering some challenging events for the global economy, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the invasion of Russia in Ukraine. For the purposes of the main topic of this paper, we first use the ADF and KPSS tests to point out any non-stationarity issues between our variables. Then we estimate our model with the use of an ARMA model specification. The results reveal that increasing oil and gas prices have a positive impact on the Greek CPI with a lag and PPI contemporaneously. We then implement a non-linear specification model that includes a set of dummy variables, capturing the upward and downward fluctuations of the global oil and gas prices. The results point out the existence of a positive asymmetry between oil price changes and the Greek domestic inflation. In greater detail, there is a positive relationship between oil price changes and the Greek domestic inflation, which is larger during periods of decreasing oil prices. Another asymmetric relationship is identified among gas prices and the Greek PPI and CPI. Periods when gas prices increase result in a small increase of Greek national inflation, while there is no effect among the variables during periods of decreasing gas prices. As a final proposition, this paper suggests a number of policies that the Greek government could use to protect the country’s households and businesses against future global oil price increases. Sun, 01 Jan 2023 00:00:00 GMT https://sphere.acg.edu/jspui/handle/123456789/2511 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://sphere.acg.edu/jspui/handle/123456789/2510 Title: Divergent paths, convergent destinations: Analyzing the economic integration of non-euro countries with the euro area Authors: Mylona, Rafailia-Argyro Abstract: The European sovereign debt crisis of the past decade has rekindled the researchers’ interest in exploring the integration of non-Euro countries with the Euro Area. The Euroscepticism that followed the crisis has led to only 4 new members in the Eurozone since the early 2010s. For this reason, this study examines the integration of 8 non-Euro countries with the Euro Area and the existence of a leverage effect. These countries, in alphabetical order, are Croatia, Czechia1, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK. This approach to this subject results in an ECM-TGARCH model. The data employed are daily, excluding weekends and bank holidays, nominal exchange rates expressed versus the dollar ranging from January 1st, 2002, to December 31st, 2022. The empirical findings of the study indicate that Czechia, Poland, and Switzerland could join the Eurozone, whereas Hungary, Romania, Sweden, and the UK could not. Croatia, the most recent Eurozone member, has only become integrated with the Euro Area after 2018 when it was actively trying to fulfill the convergence criteria. As for the volatility asymmetry, it was only present in the case of Switzerland. With several non-Euro, EU nations remaining to adopt the euro, it is worth examining the reasons why they are skeptical and address potential issues that jeopardize the unity of the Eurozone. Sun, 01 Jan 2023 00:00:00 GMT https://sphere.acg.edu/jspui/handle/123456789/2510 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z